India Watch Briefing #5
Timing and Optics Matter? Modi Meets Putin in Moscow Amid Russia's Ukraine Strikes and NATO Summit
Editor’s note
Last week, the NATO Summit took place. Simultaneously, Modi and Putin held a bilateral summit in Russia, marking Modi's first visit to the country since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The timing was less than ideal, as Modi arrived on a day when Russia launched a brutal aerial bombardment against Ukraine, including a strike on Kyiv’s largest children’s hospital. This juxtaposition of summits highlights the different approaches between the West and India (and the Global South) when it comes to Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine. Specifically, Modi's meeting with Putin underscores the risks and challenges India faces in pursuing strategic autonomy and maintaining a policy of multialignment amid the US-China rivalry and wars in Ukraine and Gaza. In Moscow, Modi reiterated New Delhi’s stance that the war in Ukraine needs to end. No breakthrough agreements emerged from the meeting, except discussions on the current trade imbalance favoring Russia and the facilitation of returning all Indians serving in the Russian army. Notably, there was no mention of the term “Indo-Pacific,” but rather an unusual reference to the “regions of Indian and Pacific oceans.” This visit raises key questions about Russia’s role in India’s foreign policy: What can India realistically do to split Russia from China? To what extent will India keep tolerating Russia’s lack of public acknowledgment of Chinese aggression against India?
After Russia, Modi visited Austria, the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister in four decades since Indira Gandhi in 1983. In general, we can say that the relationship between India and Austria has been largely underexplored – However, both countries have interesting similarities in their approach to Russia.
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Our main highlights for this edition:
“India-Russia Relations in Troubled Times: Steady but Stagnating” by Aleksei Zakharov for IFRI
“The war in Ukraine emerged as a significant challenge for bilateral ties, presenting new obstacles to political and diplomatic relations and intensifying the previous difficulties in developing economic cooperation. While Russia has rushed into reinventing the old friendship with India, the latter has acted with greater discretion. New Delhi has demonstrated a nuanced approach to navigating the Russia-Ukraine conflict, staying on good terms with Moscow and the West. As long as the war in Ukraine persists, India seems to be prioritizing maintaining the status quo in its relationship with Russia over pursuing new initiatives. This may help to prevent the two sides from drifting apart too far in the near term but is unlikely to lead to any substantive progress in their relationship.”
“Modi visit isn’t driving a wedge between Russia & China, but India & Indo-Pacific allies” by Rajesh Rajagopalan for ThePrint
There’s definitely some logic to attempting to split Russia from China, but Vladimir Putin’s strategically idiotic invasion of Ukraine has made that task well-nigh impossible. It has made Russia so dependent on China that there is little India can do currently to drive a wedge between the two. The joint statement reveals more than one concession that India has made, but little by way of any Russian nod to Indian concerns regarding China. For example, India has basically accepted the Russian line on Ukraine, calling for “peaceful resolution . . . through dialogue and diplomacy including engagement between both parties”, with nary a word about issues of territorial sovereignty. More critically, giving in to Russian and Chinese preference, there is no mention of the Indo-Pacific, but rather a cumbersome formulation of the “regions of Indian and Pacific oceans”.
“A Decade of Transitions: Trends in Indian Foreign Policy 2014-2024” edited by C. Raja Mohan and Happymon Jacob
“This report reviews and assesses the key trends in Indian foreign policy over the past decade (2014-2024) and anticipates the coming decade's challenges and opportunities. As India navigates rapid technological changes, economic growth, and regional dynamics, it has experienced both successes and failures. The report highlights India's evolving role as a near-great power, its strategic alignments, and its efforts to balance relations with the U.S., Russia, and China. It also explores India's engagement with the Indo-Pacific and the Middle East. Based on insights from a workshop hosted by CSDR in February 2024, the report offers a comprehensive understanding of India's foreign policy transitions and future directions.”
Indian Foreign Policy in Brief
“India's economy benefits from Russia: What's in it for Moscow?” – Interview with Michael Kugelman for DW News
“India 2023: Tactical wins and strategic setbacks in foreign policy?” by Ian Hall for Asia Maior
“India had a busy and increasingly tumultuous year in foreign policy. New Delhi played host to both the Group of 20 and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, providing opportunities to shape agendas in multiple areas of global governance and international security. It used both presidencies to showcase the achievements of the Modi government, to demonstrate India’s «convening power», and, at times, to frustrate others, especially China. But, during 2023, India also attracted global attention for other reasons. In the middle of year, the killing of a Sikh separatist in Canada led some to conclude that New Delhi was running a covert programme of targeted assassinations. That incident led to a major diplomatic dispute with Ottawa and was followed by evidence, uncovered by United States authorities, of an unsuccessful plot to assassinate another Sikh separatist. These events cast a shadow over India’s strategic partnership with Washington. Towards the end of year, the outbreak of violence in Gaza brought the Modi government’s Middle East policy – especially the strong relationship forged with Israel – under greater scrutiny. Both could prefigure strategic setbacks for India, this article argues.”
“Why India will become a superpower” by Martin Wolf for FT
What will matter most, however, is how India manages itself. Its biggest challenges are internal: maintaining stability; improving education; defending the rule of law; upgrading infrastructure; providing a first-class environment for investment; encouraging inward investment; and accelerating its shift towards clean energy. The recent elections have made me more optimistic. The country should continue to have a stable government. But Modi’s BJP has been humbled. I hope this will persuade the government to focus its efforts on the economy and welfare of the population, rather than on India’s very own culture wars. India can be an influential and immensely important stabilising force in the world. We must all hope it rises to this occasion.
Spotlight on EU-India Relations
“Why NATO Should Stay Out of Asia” by Mathieu Droin, Kelly A. Grieco, and Happymon Jacob for Foreign Affairs
“NATO is not a good fit for a region where states such as India and Indonesia have long traditions of not aligning with military alliances.”
“L'Inde, un partenaire incontournable pour la France dans l'Indo-Pacifique?” by Jérémy Bachelier and Mélissa Levaillant for IFRI
“Despite strategic convergence in the Indo-Pacific, potential divergences could emerge, particularly due to the evolution of India’s domestic politics and the extent of India’s ambitions in the Indian Ocean. India’s multialignment strategy can sometimes lack clarity, posing multiple challenges for France in the long term. This study offers several recommendations to clarify, rationalize, and strengthen the Franco-Indian relationship.”
Spotlight on “Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai” (Sino-Indian relations)
“Is there going to be an India-China deal?” by Tanvi Madan for Brookings Institute
“Four years ago, a fatal military crisis at the India-China border took their relationship to a new low where it has largely remained. In recent months, however, there has been a debate in India about the desirability of a Sino-Indian reset, i.e., whether New Delhi should make a concerted effort to resume political dialogue or resolve differences with Beijing. Given the potential impact on India’s willingness to cooperate with countries to balance China, the possibility of such a change has been a subject of interest for India’s partners. There are reasons why the Modi government might seek to stabilize ties with China, or at least set a floor for the India-China relationship. These include conflict prevention, geopolitical uncertainty, partners’ parleys with Beijing, and economic drivers. However, a tactical thaw is more likely than any structural shift away from Sino-Indian rivalry.”
A Tech Lens to India
“The Semiconductor Long Game—the Way Forward for India and China?” by Konark Bhandari for Centre on Asia and Globalisation
“Both India and China are reportedly planning to hike the local content requirement (LCR) for products manufactured in their countries. It should be noted, though, that India’s plans are centred around federal procurement only and are likely to exempt the electronics and manufacturing sectors. On the other hand, China’s LCR plans mandate that carmakers in China should target using only Chinese chips for their manufacturing operations by 2025. The supposed benefits include the creation of more jobs and greater involvement of local small-medium enterprises in supply chains. However, the longer-term goal may be to attain technological self-sufficiency when it comes to the supply chains for mature node chips or legacy chips, which are used largely in automobiles.”
Spot your event on Indian foreign policy
“The China Question: Convergences and Divergences in the India-Europe Relationship” by Heinrich Böll Stiftung Delhi and the Council for Strategic and Defence Research (CSDR). Join this webinar on Wednesday, July 17 at 11.30 AM CET featuring guest speakers Amb. Ashok Kantha (moderator), Gulshan Sachdeva, Shairee Malhotra and Mathieu Duchâtel. You can register here.
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