India Watch Briefing #18
Dhaka Goes to Beijing, and India Watches Warily
Editor’s note
Hola! Keeping it brief this time. For this edition, I have highlighted a piece on the complex dynamics between Bangladesh, China and India; another one on India’s relations with Nordic European countries, and lastly an insightful take on double standards in human rights. I must say I am especially interested in regional shifts in South Asia and China’s engagement with India’s neighbours. This year is crucial as Bangladesh is set to hold elections, a priori, by year’s end.
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Our main highlights for this edition:
“As Bangladesh builds ties with China, India looks on” by Arafatul Islam for DW
“Yunus came home from China having secured $2.1 billion (€1.94 billion) in Chinese investments, loans and grants, his office said. A major part of this is establishing a Chinese Industrial Economic Zone (CIEZ) in Bangladesh, with nearly 30 Chinese companies having pledged $1 billion for the project, coming after Yunus urged more private Chinese investment in Bangladesh's manufacturing sector. China also plans to lend $400 million to modernize Bangladesh's second-largest port at Mongla. Beijing is considering enhanced cooperation in water resource management, and again pledged to support Bangladesh in its effort to repatriate over a million Rohingya refugees currently living in crowded refugee camps after fleeing persecution in neighboring Myanmar.”
“India-Nordic Budding Dynamics: Sweden, a Vital Gateway?” by Jagannath Panda, Niklas Swanström and Mahima Duggal for ISDP
“Through partnerships in trade and technology, naval and maritime aspects, space and land technology, and energy and electric aviation, cooperation, India and the Nordics carry the potential to forge a greater partnership which would augment the economic landscape of Eurasia. This promising alliance, anchored by Sweden and India’s joint technological expertise and manufacturing might, represents more than mere commercial opportunism—it signals a strategic realignment. In order for the alliance to be successful, there must be concerted political will from both sides as well as regular and open policy exchanges at working and high levels to resolve points of divergence and strengthen areas of convergence.”
“India's double standards on minority rights” by Shahadat Swadhin for East Asia Forum
“India's approach to minority rights reveals a stark contradiction. While the BJP government criticises Bangladesh's treatment of Hindus, it oversees systemic marginalisation and discrimination growing discrimination against Muslims domestically. Protests over a Hindu monk's arrest in Bangladesh and violence against Muslims in India highlight this double standard. This selective outrage serves domestic electoral interests but damages India's regional leadership and threatens stability in South Asia.”
Indian Foreign Policy in Brief
“India’s Institutional Cooperation on Climate Resilience in the Bay of Bengal Region” by Pooja Ramamurthi and Riya Sinha for IPCS and Clingendael
“The Bay of Bengal region—comprising India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Thailand—has been recognised as one of the most climate vulnerable regions in the world. This has significant implications for the security of the 1.7 billion people living in the region. Their interconnectedness further amplifies shared climate vulnerabilities, demanding coordinated cross-border engagement. Over the past decade, India has initiated several cooperative initiatives for climate resilience. However, the policy focus has often been limited to regional platforms with limited knowledge of India’s initiatives through alternate channels. This policy brief aims to bridge this gap by mapping and analysing India’s engagement across different institutional mechanisms, including bilateral, triangular, regional, and multilateral, to foster climate resilience in the region. The policy brief focuses on regional cooperation mechanisms, including the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) and the Bay of Bengal Large Marine Ecosystem Project (BOBLME). It also highlights India’s engagement through multilateral initiatives spearheaded by India such as the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) and the International Solar Alliance (ISA). Finally, the policy brief outlines opportunities and actionable pathways for India to enhance its engagement with climate resilience, prioritising human security through multi-level partnerships in the Bay of Bengal region.”
“No sign of India tariff relief as US trade mission ends” by The Economic Times
“India and the US have agreed to finalize a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) by fall 2025 amidst ongoing trade tensions. They discussed enhancing market access and reducing trade barriers. However, no immediate tariff exemptions were indicated. New US tariffs take effect Tuesday, affecting India's exports, including its oil imports from Venezuela.”
“India and Minilateral Cooperation: A Chosen Partner or a “Hard Nut to Crack”” by Premesha Saha for ISPI
“India’s involvement in minilateralism in the Indo-Pacific has to be evaluated and seen from the context of how it bolsters India’s independent foreign policy, preserves its strategic autonomy and enhances its multi-alignment posture. Being a part o fminilateral groups has facilitated India’s ambitions of becoming a credible global player with a voice in global platforms. Its involvement in minilateral and trilateral initiatives has also led to improvement in India’s bilateral ties with countries like the US, Japan and Australia, among others. These initiatives have also facilitated trust building and better understanding of each other’s strategic interests, objectives, and threat perceptions.At the same time, there are certain challenges that India will have to navigate when it comes to brushing away criticism of how its policy of not joining military groupings has slowed the working of certain minilaterals like the QUAD. India will need to engage more frequently with its QUAD partners to develop a shared understanding of threat perceptions, and minilaterals can provide the necessary platform.For minilaterals to remain a viable option, there is also a need to look beyond the China challenge. With the advent of new governments, the China policy of countries will change. This is visible in the case of countries like Australia or the Philippines for instance. Therefore, there is a need to constantly revise the agenda of minilateral groupings by keeping in mind the larger Indo-Pacific theatre and the challenges that the region faces, which are not just instigated by the rise of a more belligerent China. This is already being done to a large extent by the QUAD but for India it is imperative to ensure that minilateralism remains sustainable and thrives in the long term.”
“Better know a nuke: India” by IISS
“India’s nuclear weapons programme begins with the pre-independence roots of its nuclear ambitions. While India has continuously emphasised the peaceful aspects of nuclear energy, the geopolitical landscape in South Asia has shaped its dual-use trajectory. The border war with China in 1962, followed by China’s nuclear test in 1964, and the increasing alignment between China and Pakistan, were turning points. In this episode of The Arms Control Poseur, host Dr Alexander Bollfrass is joined by leading nuclear policy experts Dr Manpreet Sethi and Dr Jayita Sarkar to explore South Asia’s nuclear stability, the roots of India’s nuclear posture and what the future may hold for arms control in an increasingly multipolar world.”
“Artificial Intelligence, Warfare and Ethics in India” by Kaushik Roy for Journal of Military Ethics
“In the second decade of the new millennium, artificial intelligence (AI) became a catchword among senior politicians and the military officers of India. Indian military officers have raised concerns about the potential use of AI-enabled weapon systems by China and by insurgents supported by Pakistan in the subcontinent. This article portrays the complex interlinkages between AI, strategic planning about future warfare and the role of ethics in India. The article, divided into three sections, deals with the role of AI and ethics in India’s grand strategy, in military strategy and in command culture. Finally, the article also offers some policy recommendations. For cultural reasons, India follows a defensive strategy. India is attempting to integrate the AI weapons within its dharmayuddha (just war) format. Indian military strategy emphasises that on no account should these intelligent machines be autonomous. Atman (self-consciousness) must not be subordinated to yantras (machines).”
Spotlight on EU-India Relations
“India trade talks ‘extremely difficult,’ EU negotiator warns” by Sofia Sánchez Manzanaro for Euractiv
“The Commission’s chief India negotiator has cast doubt on sealing a full free trade deal with India by year-end, citing tough negotiations in key sectors like spirits and automobiles. Christophe Kiener admitted to MEPs on Wednesday that New Delhi might force the EU to “readjust” its trade approach to meet the 2025 deadline. “It is quite obvious that we're not going to be able to finalise a fully fledged free trade agreement à la New Zealand with India in the next 10 months,” he said, stressing that their approach to trade differs fundamentally beyond size or geography. Kiener said that both Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and India’s PM Narendra Modi had set up an “extremely ambitious timeline” and that negotiations have rapidly accelerated. “We have come to the moment where we will have to make some difficult decisions,” he told MEPs.”
“Can Geopolitical Alignment Seal the India-EU FTA?” by Mohan Kumar for Carnegie India
“This article argues that the geopolitical circumstances have never been more conducive, not merely for the early conclusion of the free trade agreement (FTA) between India and the EU, but also for crafting a substantive and comprehensive strategic partnership.”
Spotlight on “Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai”
“A New Chapter in Dhaka-Beijing Ties? Why Chief Adviser Dr. Muhammad Yunus Is Visiting China” by Md Obaidullah for The Diplomat
“India’s apparent displeasure with the current government – which is demonstrated by restricts on visas and a decline in diplomatic warmth – has left a vacuum. China, which has never been a spectator in South Asian affairs, is filling this void by presenting itself as a reliable partner with no political demands. This strategic patience was demonstrated by Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen’s recent remark that China maintains a consistent foreign policy despite shifts in Bangladesh’s domestic affairs.”
“Don’t blame China for India’s manufacturing decline” by Keji Mao for South China Morning Post
“It was only after the Trump administration started to pressure India on tariff issues that it finally began looking to improve trade and investment ties with China. But restoring trust will not be easy. A popular saying among the Chinese business community captures the sentiment perfectly: money made in India stays in India; good luck trying to bring it home.This scepticism isn’t driven by border disputes or diplomatic tensions; it is primarily the result of a serious trust deficit created by the Modi administration and its draconian policies.”
Upcoming Events on India's Foreign Policy and Governance (& Opportunities)
“2025 Carnegie Global Dialogue: China and India”: As China and India mark 75 years of diplomatic ties, relations remain strained due to ongoing border tensions. Where is the relationship headed? Join this online discussion taking place on April 7th, featuring Rick Waters, Li Li, Jabin Thomas Jacob and Saheb Singh Chadha. You can register here.
“Express Routes: India’s Railway Connectivity with South Asia”: This webinar, which takes place today at 4PM (IST) is organized by CSEP and focuses on India’s efforts to enhance railway connectivity with South Asian nations. It features Riya Sinha, Jaya Varma Sinha, Prabir De, and Constantino Xavier. You can register here.
“ERC Advanced Grant / UKRI Frontier Research Grant PhD Studentship”: This is an exciting opportunity for an ambitious and talented candidate who wants to create and pursue their own socio-legal research project on sectoral water conflicts in South Asia as part of a major new research project - WATCON. Full info here.
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