India Watch Briefing #13
Wrapping Up 2024: Preparing for a 'Quantum Leap' in India Matters
Editor’s note
The past few weeks have been intense for EU-India relations, both in Delhi and Brussels. Key events and meetings, public and closed-door, focused on how to deepen the EU’s engagement in the Indo-Pacific and address the challenges of working with India.
One key takeaway from my time in Brussels this last month is that engaging India is far from straightforward. It is not easy at all. On the surface, India’s status as a democracy might suggest the foundations are in place for a seamless partnership with the EU. But the reality is much more complex. Differences emerge not only on human rights but also in trade—how we perceive trade barriers, market liberalization, and even the principles underpinning the rules-based international order. These divergences highlight the need to continue investing resources and human capital in strengthening the relationship.
This is part of the motivation behind launching India Watch Briefing six months ago, and last week’s launch of Generation EU-India. Early next year, a third project on India (you know, just to change a little bit the topic)– will follow, but that is a story for 2025.
As we close a busy year for India watchers, it is time to reflect and prepare for what could be a “quantum leap” in relations between India and the West in the year ahead (i.e. EU-India Summit in Delhi). I want to thank you for supporting this project. By “simply” being subscribed to this newsletter, you are supporting a broader effort to create opportunities for learning, growth, and connection for anybody working on India, including EU-India relations.
We are still in the early stages of building a strong foundation for expertise on India –and South Asia– in Europe. But things are changing quickly. In the years to come, I hope this small initiative will help expand knowledge (and understanding) of India, foster collaboration, and connect people in this field.
Wishing you a peaceful holiday season!
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Our main highlights for this edition:
“Can the EU Elevate Its Partnership With India?” by Garima Mohan for German Mashall Fund
“Today, largely due to the challenges posed by China, the EU and India share unprecedented strategic convergence. India is, therefore, investing in European partnerships more than ever before, and the incoming Trump administration’s isolationist tendencies could spur Brussels and New Delhi to move even closer together. It has been noted often that the EU can engage India only on trade as the bloc’s member states have security and defense competencies. However, mutual concerns about China and the EU Commission’s embrace of a broader trade, technology, and security agenda have opened crucial new avenues for cooperation between Brussels and New Delhi. Limiting this partnership to an FTA will not engender the kind of change that the Commission wishes to see.”
“Back to Bipolarity: How China’s Rise Transformed the Balance of Power” by Jennifer Lind for International Security
“India’s rise to great power status remains contingent on several policies and reforms. Capitalizing on favorable demographics requires policies to improve infrastructure, expand the manufacturing sector, raise human capital levels, and reduce discrimination (and violence) against girls and women to increase female labor force participation. India also has significant ground to cover in the military realm. Its defense spending ranks at 10 percent (see Figure 11), which is far from the normal range for great power military expenditure (23– 105 percent). Raising this percentage would require both continued economic growth and major changes in India’s strategic thinking. In sum, the most likely cause of a shift to multipolarity will result from the continued rise of India. Yet the country is not yet a great power, and its future economic growth and military rise are contingent on policy choices. The world is bipolar, for now.”
“India's Foreign Policy in 2025: Navigating a Shifting Geopolitical Landscape” with Farwa Aamer, Akshay Mathur, Ambassador Nirupama Rao, and James Crabtree for Asia Society
Indian Foreign Policy in Brief
“The Indo-Pacific and its Emergence as a Global Powerhouse” by Marc Saxer for lnternationale Politik Quarterly
“Nepal, wedged between India and China, is trying to resist the desires of its large neighbors, but is only able to do so to a limited extent due to internal political chaos. Sri Lanka, also politically unstable, has become a key target for Chinese expansion in the Indian Ocean. The handover of the port of Hambantota as part of a Chinese bailout has lent new credibility to the narrative of Chinese debt-trap diplomacy in the region. The Maldives are also to be integrated into China’s “string of pearls” in the Indian Ocean as a maritime supply base. But here too, domestic political turbulence is thwarting Beijing’s plans. Bangladesh has long been under the influence of India. After the fall of the “Iron Lady” Sheikh Hasina, Dhaka is also likely to increasingly seek more room for maneuver between the colossi. Unlike their Southeast Asian neighbors, the smaller South Asian powers are often unable to reduce dependencies through flexible shuttling due to internal political instability.”
An extra: for the Spanish speaking group of subscribers, here goes a must.
“India en el siglo XXI: de economía emergente a potencia global” – With Ana Ballesteros Peiró for Elcano Royal Institute
“In this episode, Ignacio Urbasos and Raquel García delve into India's role in the international system, its growing geopolitical influence and the keys to its foreign policy with Ana Ballesteros Peiró, senior associate researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute. They also reflect on the profile of its Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, the reasons that explain India's positioning in conflicts such as the war in Ukraine or the situation in Gaza, and its relations with other regional powers, such as China and Pakistan.”
“Who is killing the idea of South Asia?” by Mosharraf Zaidi on Holding the Centre (Substack)
“South Asian regionalism should be an inevitable feature of India’s rise—not a stink that Indian strategists try to explain away with sleight of hand. No truly global power should find its fast track rise as a power constantly be challenged through assertions of sovereignty by India’s immediate neighbors. India’s failure in South Asia doesn’t matter to the US, China or Russia, but it SHOULD matter to New Delhi. Fantasy of Indian hegemony in the region is a net losing proposition for India’s “rise”. India’s assertions that it has arrived as a global power are not without merit. But it is unrealistic for Indian strategists to expect the same red carpet within the region that is granted so readily to New Delhi far from home. The reason is quite simple. The stakes for the rest of the world are secondary and they are non existential. The stakes within the region are more immediate. […] Does it behove global powers to continue to struggle within a region that should be its most obvious and natural theater of influence? This is the essential question for the Indian strategist that looks toward one hundred years of Indian independence.”
“Managing the Canada-India Diplomatic Conflict: A National Security Imperative” by Andrew Latham for RealClear Defense
“The ongoing diplomatic dispute between Canada and India has escalated into a serious national security concern for both nations. What began as a political row, sparked by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s allegations of Indian involvement in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, has evolved into a wider conflict that threatens to disrupt security dynamics in both countries. With accusations ranging from interference in domestic affairs to targeted political actions, both Canada and India find themselves in a standoff with far-reaching security implications. This piece argues that while a full resolution may be elusive, both nations must take immediate steps to manage the conflict to prevent further harm to their national security interests.”
Spotlight on EU-India Relations
“The EU is about to have its first president from an ethnic minority” by Aitor Hernández-Morales for POLITICO
“The incoming Council president’s paternal grandfather was from Goa, an Indian state that ceased to be part of the fading Portuguese empire just months after Costa’s birth. His paternal grandmother, meanwhile, was French-Mozambican. Costa’s background distinguishes him from the previous holders of top EU posts, most of whom have a hard time connecting with continents where Europe’s representatives are sometimes dismissed as condescending interlopers. During his eight years as Portuguese prime minister, Costa built up close relationships with overseas leaders, especially those from the African, Asian and South American countries that are part of the Lusophone Community of Portuguese-speaking countries. His personal charisma, and Portugal’s status as a small, unthreatening country, helped forge strong economic ties and even a free-movement agreement with former colonies. “I think there are clear signs that Europe wants to have a 360[-degree] vision of the world, not a unidirectional one,” Costa added.”
Spotlight on “Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai”
“Why India and China Are Finally Starting to Patch Things Up” by Michael Kugelman for TIME Ideas
“The best hope for deeper ties lies with their robust economic partnership (China was India’s top trade partner last year). India’s chief economic advisor is making the case for more Chinese FDI that could accelerate Beijing’s long-term plans to invest in top Indian industries. And China, with its recent economic setbacks, stands to benefit from increasing engagement with the world’s fastest-growing major economy. The incoming return of Trump could also spur more India-China business bonhomie, if their collective fear of U.S. tariffs prompts them to carve out more commercial space for themselves. Ultimately, relations will sometimes be cooperative, particularly on the economy, but they’ll remain competitive—and possibly at times even confrontational. Still, even a modest India-China thaw is a good thing. The world is on fire, and it can’t afford yet another crisis—much less a conflict.”
“India and China in 2025” with Aparna Pande, Jonathan Ward, and Daniel Markey for Hudson Institute
Upcoming Events on India's Foreign Policy and Governance (& Opportunities)
“India entre potencias: EEUU, China, Rusia y Pakistán”: This webinar (in Spanish) organized by CIDOB, Elcano Royal Institute, and Casa Asia takes place tomorrow. It will explore how Asia is responding to the growing US-China rivalry and the potential return to a bipolar world order. Amid this competitive geopolitics, New Delhi advocates for a 'cooperative geopolitics' to safeguard both its trade interests and security. I will share some brief insights based on Ana Ballesteros’ (Senior Research Fellow at Elcano Royal Institute) analysis. Register here and join us!
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