India Watch Briefing #11
India’s Confidence in Navigating Trump 2.0
Editor’s note
In the words of Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar, “I know today a lot of countries are nervous about the U.S. [...] we are not one of them”. A priori, India is quite confident in the face of the 2024 U.S. election results (contrary to many U.S. allies in Europe and Asia).
Since the early 2000s, the partnership between the two countries has strengthened. Over time, two key areas of convergence are apparent: their complementary Indo-Pacific visions and shared concerns over China’s growing role and assertiveness in the world. However, differences may arise regarding U.S. protectionist trade and technology policies. In any case, India is likely to maintain its multi-alignment strategy—balancing ties with the U.S., diversifying partnerships across the West and the Global South, and bolstering its domestic capabilities to navigate an increasingly fragmented global order.
N.B. I am going to watch developments in Sino-Indian relations more closely. From a research perspective, I find the recent moves toward rapprochement between India and China particularly interesting. It will be fascinating to watch how India navigates the dual challenge of addressing (traditional) security concerns with China while relying on economic engagement with Beijing to sustain its growth. It is also worth watching China’s interest in improving relations with India, especially now with Trump’s return and the comeback of “trade wars.” However, China seems to be making similar overtures with other countries, likely as a preemptive strategy.
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Our main highlights for this edition:
“Riding the Rollercoaster: India and the Trump Years” by Tanvi Madan for the Robert Jervis International Security Studies Forum (RJISSF)
“By the end of the Trump administration, India had a healthier portfolio of partners, one that did not preclude but, in fact, included a much closer defense and security relationship with the United States. The India-U.S. partnership that the Biden administration inherited was in a much better place than many other American relationships. […] However, Delhi has also found itself grappling with other, more problematic, legacies of the Trump era. This includes the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, and greater political polarization in the U.S. that has prevented more effective and speedy American action on the pandemic, and economic recovery. The increased uncertainty of American alliesabout the U.S. has also had consequences. While it led them to seek to partner with India, it also led some of them to hedge between the U.S. and China, thus precluding the kind of collaborative action across Asian and European theaters that Delhi desires. And while India’s need for alignment will lead it to a closer relationship with the U.S., its own uncertainty during the Trump era will also reinforce its parallel desire for autonomy, thus setting limits on how far it might go with the United States even under a new president.”
“The Fatal Flaw in India’s China Strategy Economic Dependence Will Make New Delhi Forever Vulnerable to Beijing” by Harsh V. Pant and Kalpit A. Mankikar for Foreign Affairs
The authors argue that India must develop a comprehensive understanding of the threat posed by China, which lies at the intersection of economics and security. They provide a brief overview of Sino-Indian relations since the 1962 war (in which India was defeated), and contend that under Prime Minister Modi, India’s approach to China has become increasingly confrontational. However, they highlight a critical gap: India lacks a strategy for economic engagement with Beijing. To address this, the authors propose initiating a national debate on the economic policies at the national level India should adopt in the coming years. They advocate for embracing the concept of economic security and suggest that establishing a dedicated Ministry of Economic Security could serve as a foundation for India’s economic strategy toward China.
“India and Latin America: the strategic autonomy that unites them” by Shahana Thankachan and Gabriela Fajardo Mejia for Diálogo Político
“India and Latin America are not often mentioned together except in the context of their growing economic interaction. However, there is significant commonality between them. Beyond shared commercial interests, synergies can be found in foreign policy options. India and several Latin American countries have emerged as the dominant voices of the Global South. They are increasingly reluctant to align themselves with one side in the current transitional international system, marked by rising tensions between the United States and China. In light of this convergence, India and Latin American countries can find several areas of cooperation.”
Indian Foreign Policy in Brief
“Interests trump principles and values: India’s neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine war” by Raj Verma for Contemporary Security Policy
“This article contributes to the existing literature on India’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine war by arguing and illustrating that India’s failure to publicly criticize Russia and its abstention on resolutions condemning Russia for violating Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in international forums highlights India’s sovereignty paradox. India is a sovereignty hawk and its neutral position is contrary to the United Nations Charter, international law and its key foreign policy tenets of respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of a country, non-aggression, non-interference in the domestic affairs of a country and peaceful co-existence. India has been willing to compromise on its principles because the Modi government believes that Russia can play an important role in aiding India to achieve great/leading power status because of the strategic convergence between the two countries regarding a multipolar world order and countering US hegemony, and Moscow enhancing India’s security.”
“Biden, Trump, and India-US Technology Partnership” by Kashish Parpiani for Observer Research Foundation
This paper assesses United States (US) presidents Donald J. Trump’s (2017-21) and Joe Biden’s (2021-present) respective records on the India-US technology partnership. During the Trump years, this domain of bilateral cooperation saw the finalisation of foundational agreements, including those on force interoperability, and new precedents on US arms export designations for India. While these agreements pertained mostly to defence technology, the Biden administration oversaw a gradual expansion in the scope of India-US cooperation on technology. As India and the US today focus on critical and emerging technologies, this paper outlines relevant recommendations for the two sides to further harness the potential of their technology partnership.
“Voices Series: Perspectives from the Indo-Pacific on the Next U.S. Administration” – Contribution by Rohan Mukherjee for the National Bureau of Asian Research
“The cornerstone of Indian foreign policy, which enables the pursuit of these geopolitical goals or interests, is strategic autonomy. For India, this means not just freedom from external constraints but the freedom to pursue its own path to great-power status. This path will lead in directions that frequently undermine U.S. interests. Thus, India’s ideal relationship with the next U.S. administration will be one where Washington remains one of its most committed strategic partners without making any unreasonable demands on India’s strategic autonomy. This is a viable proposition for both sides, so long as their fundamental interests overlap. In moments when they do not overlap, India will go its own way.”
Spotlight on EU-India Relations
“Indo-Mediterranean. Italy and India, a special relationship” – Workshop by Med-Or and CSDR
“On Wednesday, November 6, a workshop titled “Indo-Mediterranean: Italy and India, a Special Relationship” took place in Rome, organized by the Med-Or Foundation and the Council for Strategic and Defense Research (CSDR), following the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the two entities in September 2023. This event served as a critical platform for discussing prominent issues in the Indo-Mediterranean theatre, with a particular focus on maritime security and the Italian and Indian naval cooperation, the IMEC corridor project, potential defense and security partnerships, and the prospect of expanding collaboration in other strategic sectors, including emerging technologies, scientific research, and space exploration. These are all central themes in the revitalized partnership between Rome and New Delhi.”
“Europe’s Indo-Pacific rebalancing under Trump 2.0: Beyond ‘business as usual’” by Lizza Bomassi for the European Union Institute for Security Studies
“While Trump’s decisive victory may stabilise US domestic political dynamics, the same cannot be said of US foreign policy. For Europe, the changing US context presents challenges but also opportunities for more tailored engagement in the Indo-Pacific. Regional flashpoints – the South and East China Seas, the Taiwan Strait, and the Korean Peninsula – will require close attention, especially given ASEAN’s internal divisions and India’s cautious approach to security. While the likelihood of a full-blown military conflict remains low, it cannot be ruled out. Even with the numerous challenges facing Beijing – including managing the real limits of its no-limits partnership with Moscow – China’s creeping territorial expansionism highlights the need for vigilance. This is especially true if a more transactional Trump administration prioritises deal-making over international norms and procedures.”
Spotlight on “Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai”
“On Both Sides of the India-China Divide: Shivshankar Menon, Subramanian Swamy, Ashok Kantha” by The Wire
“In this compelling episode of Central Hall, we dive deep into the complexities of the India-China border issue—one of the most challenging geopolitical dilemmas of our time. Join us as Kapil Sibal brings together three highly respected voices in Indian foreign policy and strategic affairs: Shivshankar Menon, Subramanian Swamy, and Ashok Kantha. Each guest brings a unique perspective to the table, providing insights into the past, present, and potential future of India-China relations.”
“The Next Dalai Lama: Preparing for Reincarnation and Why It Matters to India” by Vijay Gokhale for Carnegie India
“India is not central to the framing of Chinese policy on the Dalai Lama and the reincarnation issue. The Chinese policy is primarily driven by concerns regarding maintaining stability and political control over Tibet and what the United States might do during the transition to destabilize Tibet and discredit China internationally. India has a stake in the reincarnation question due to the domestic following and the presence of the exile community on Indian soil. It is not a passive spectator. Even six decades after he left Tibet, the Dalai Lama still holds significant influence over the hearts and minds of Tibetans; this worries Beijing, as does Washington’s escalating support for the Tibetan cause and the Dalai Lama personally. Therefore, there has been a hardening of the PRC’s position on the 14th Dalai Lama and the reincarnation question in the past fifteen years. This hardening is likely to create fresh challenges for India’s policy, particularly on the key questions of the reincarnation and recognition of the 15th Dalai Lama, as well as the interregnum between the passing of the 14th Dalai Lama and the selection of his successor.”
Upcoming Events on India's Foreign Policy and Governance (& Opportunities)
“Connecting West and East: Indian Ocean Security and the US Indo-Pacific Strategy”: This webinar on the 19/11 by the East-West Center in Washington gathers the authors of a special Asia Pacific Bulletin series to understand the views of scholars from across the region—western (Madagascar and Seychelles), central (Maldives, India, and Sri Lanka), and eastern (Indonesia and Thailand) Indian Ocean—about their countries’ outlooks toward Indian Ocean security and the US Indo-Pacific Strategy. Among the authors, there is Pooja Bhatt.
“Trump 2.0: Implications for India and Europe”: This webinar on the 20/11 by the Heinrich Boell Foundation will examine the foreign policy implications of the outcome of the 2024 US presidential elections from an Indian perspective, while also identifying areas of convergence and divergence in viewpoints from India and Europe. Speakers include Monish Tourangbam, Rajesh Rajagopalan and Garima Mohan, with C. Raja Mohan as Moderator.
Call for Articles “Asia in Transition: Beyond Geopolitical Competition”: Revista CIDOB d’Afers Internacionals is launching a call for academic articles to be published in issue 141 (December 2025). Scientific coordination: Pablo Pareja Alcaraz (Pompeu Fabra University) and Inés Arco Escriche (CIDOB). Deadline for abstract submission: 30 November 2024. Issue 141 of Revista CIDOB d’Afers Internacionals will focus on the restructuring of power and regional dynamics in Asia and the strategies of the region’s countries and stakeholders, with particular attention to those of Northeast, Southeast and South Asia, in their responses to the geopolitical competition between Beijing and Washington.
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