2024 Indian Elections and the Cracked Mirror: Modi 3.0 is Here, but Weaker
Edition #2 – What Do the Indian Election Results Mean for Modi and the Country's Foreign Policy?
Editor’s note
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has lost its parliamentary majority and has been forced to turn to coalition partners to stay in power. Elections have shattered Modi’s image of invincibility. However, the BJP remains the party with the highest number of seats in the Lok Sabha. Once a marginal force, it seems the BJP is here to stay.
In terms of foreign policy, we can expect continuity in India's strategic priorities, including maintaining its strategic autonomy, engaging with major international players (the US, EU, China, and Russia), and leading the Global South. But, given the shifts in domestic politics, the Indian government may become more inward-focused, prioritizing improvements in living standards and addressing high levels of inequality and unemployment, particularly among the youth. Jaishankar will continue serving as the Minister of External Affairs for a second term.
N.B. Due to the announcement of the Indian election results and the formation of the new government, we are making an exception this time. Normally, you can expect to receive this newsletter every other Monday!
Our main highlights for this edition:
“What India's election results mean for Modi” by Avantika Chilkoti (The Economist) for CBS News
“Narendra Modi, since he actually entered politics in 2002 electoral politics, has always worked with a very strong majority. His entire style, his entire personality is about centralized control. It is a very strong man style. I can't think of a recent example of this prime minister having had to make some sort of compromise. It is a very different sort of politics. And he is going to be working in coalition for the first time. For the coalition partners, it looks like he is going to be working with, they are a small party and highly unreliable. These are parties that have switched sides again and again. It is going to require a different kind of political skill. What I will say is that Modi has reinvented himself time and again. So, we shouldn't rule out him reinventing himself here and managing that difficult task.”
“What Modi 3.0 Means for the World” by Michael Kugelman for Time
“Modi will begin his third term on June 8 with a smaller mandate, and he will need to rely on coalition partners, who agreed to back him on Wednesday, to govern. But less political space won’t have a major impact on foreign policy, because there’s broad multipartisan support for Modi’s longstanding priority of deepening India’s role—and power—on the global stage.”
“A New India Emerges: Can the World Look Past its Democratic Flaws?” by Manali Kumar for Neue Zürcher Zeitung.
“India has held 18 general elections in its 77 years of independence – a rather rare distinction among developing postcolonial countries. Despite decades of unfulfilled economic potential, the fact that India is a democracy has lent the country a certain appeal in international politics. And as the geopolitical rivalry between China and the US heats up, India’s strategic importance has grown.”
Indian Foreign Policy in Brief
“India’s shock election result is a loss for Modi but a win for democracy” by Chietigj Bajpaee for Chatham House
“Although India will continue to pursue an assertive foreign policy, it will perhaps be a slightly muted version as the new BJP-led coalition government will be forced to turn inward after a disappointing election result.”
“The Formation of Indo-Pacific ‘SQUAD’: A View From India” by Captain (Dr) Gurpreet S Khurana, IN (Retd) for National Maritime Foundation
“The formation of the SQUAD represents a fundamental divergence between America’s ‘hard’ versus India’s ‘soft’ approach to the Indo-Pacific. India’s divergent foreign policy approach, such as is evidenced by its continuing close ties with Russia (amidst the Ukraine War) and Iran (the Chahbahar port long-term deal) may have also contributed to the US diversifying its strategic options away from the QUAD and India, which led to the SQUAD. However, geopolitical and strategic realities would appear to justify the formation of SQUAD, as it did in case of AUKUS.”
“Narendra Modi Is Preparing for a Thousand-Year Legacy” by Sudhi Ranjan Sen and Daniel Ten Kate for Bloomberg
“Modi has understood this society very well, that we are religious people — in government, outside government, within the society, covertly, overtly, religious people,” she [Sheela Bhatt] added. “When you meet Modi, you should be knowing that science and technology is under that huge religious umbrella.” Understanding that worldview is key to grasping how Modi makes decisions. He’ll welcome overseas investors if they can make India a strong Hindu nation, but not foreign human-rights groups, missionaries and journalists who challenge that vision.”
Spotlight on EU-India Relations
“Improving India–Europe Defence Cooperation: A New Arms Deal?” by Gaurav Saini for Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom
“India's burgeoning defence trade with the European Union (EU) underscores the need for a comprehensive approach to bridge existing gaps and foster enduring collaboration. The evolving security landscape, coupled with the aftermath of the war in Ukraine, has necessitated reforms in the European defence industry, aligning its focus with diversification and prompting increased interest in India. While the current trajectory relies heavily on government-to-government (GtoG) dealings and bilateral trade, this article advocates for a strategic shift towards Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) to establish a more resilient and mutually beneficial defence relationship.”
Spotlight on “Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai” (Sino-Indian relations)
“Beijing objects after India’s Modi thanks Taiwanese leader Lai for election message” by Zhao Ziwen for South China Morning Post
“India-China Relations in Modi’s Third term” by Saniya Kulkarni and Lukas Fiala for The China Global South Project
“Looking ahead, Modi’s third term will very likely continue its foreign policy goals of seeking greater strategic autonomy, furthering cooperation within the Global South, and strengthening India’s image as a great power. Although unlikely, it will be interesting to see if there will be a shift in these goals considering this is the first time Modi will be leading a coalition government since he came to power in 2014. Negotiations for cabinet posts are currently underway in the Indian capital, but it is difficult to imagine the BJP would part from core ministries such as Home, defense, finance, and external affairs, among others.”
A Tech Lens to India
“The Near Future of Deepfakes Just Got Way Clearer” by Nilesh Christopher for The Atlantic
“As the U.S. and other countries head to the polls this year and reckon with the political consequences of AI, they may see something similar to what played out in India. The Democratic National Committee, for example, mocked a clip of Lara Trump singing by creating an AI-generated diss track. Deepfakes might still be a problem going forward as the technology progresses. “The question is whether the volume and effectiveness of the malicious and deceptive usages within this spectrum of human and political expression will grow,” Sam Gregory, the executive director of the human-rights nonprofit Witness, told me. “All the trend lines for synthetic-media production point in that direction.”
Spot your event on Indian foreign policy
The Franco-German Observatory of the Indo-Pacific is hosting a webinar today titled "How China's Presence in South Asia Shapes India's Indo-Pacific Policy." The speaker is Smruti S. Pattanaik, with Raphaëlle Khan and Johannes Plagemann as moderators. You can register here.
The LSE South Asia Centre together with the Ralph Miliband Programme at the LSE will host tomorrow a hybrid event on “The Indian Election and the Future of Progressive Politics”. Featured speakers include Christophe Jaffrelot, Sanjay Kumar, Robin Archer, and Alnoor Bhimani. You can register here.
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